The Middle East crisis has shrunk the world’s passable skies, as well as grounding flights.
Analysis of flight-tracking data reported by The Economist puts the scale of change in stark relief. In a typical 48-hour period last March, more than 3,700 passenger planes crossed the Persian Gulf. But on 3 and 4 March this year, just 47 did.
Dubai, which claimed the title of the world’s busiest airport as recently as January, was recording around 220 daily departures as of 11 March – roughly a third of the normal figure. Doha managed just 16 flights that day, around 5% of its average.
But the disruption goes beyond the Gulf conflict. It compounds a problem that has been building since 2022.
Two corridors, both compromised
When Russia invaded Ukraine, Western airlines lost access to Russian airspace – at that point covering around 15% of all international passenger flights. Airlines rerouted south, many of them through the Middle East. That workaround is now gone too.
With both the northern Siberian corridor and the southern Middle East corridor restricted, airlines are left with few efficient alternatives for connecting Europe and Asia. Flights between Europe and East Asia are now reportedly two to four hours longer on average, depending on route and aircraft type.
The main fallback is the Caucasus corridor. This is a narrow band of airspace above Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, which at its narrowest runs just 100 miles wide between Russian and Iranian airspace – and it was already under pressure.
Azerbaijan’s airspace handled 110 additional flights per day when Iran temporarily closed its airspace in June 2025. The current situation is significantly more severe.
What this means for bookings
The route impacts are concrete:
- The Economist says London to Tokyo flights have gained nearly two hours.
- London to Hong Kong nonstops are adding around two hours, with a Boeing 777 burning roughly $7,000 worth of fuel per hour, according to aviation consultant Tony Stanton – costs that flow through to fares.
- CNN reported that Air India’s London to Delhi services are looping south of the Gulf, adding around 50 minutes.
According to The Economist, Gulf hubs like Dubai and Doha handle approximately a third of Europe–Asia traffic – and more than half of EU–Australia and New Zealand connections. And when those hubs operate at reduced capacity, the knock-on effects reach Australian itineraries quickly. Think longer connections, tighter seat availability on alternative routings and higher fares.
Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific (operating routes that largely bypass the affected corridors) are currently the most reliable alternatives for connecting into Europe or Asia.
Qantas’s Perth–London service, which bypasses the Gulf entirely, remains fully operational, though demand has pushed seat availability tighter.
Aviation analysts expect Middle Eastern airspace restrictions to persist through at least 2027 to 2028, depending on the conflict’s resolution. And Russian airspace shows no signs of reopening.
For anyone planning executive travel schedules in the months ahead, building in extra flight time and monitoring route options closely is essential.
[All details correct at time of writing. Check airline websites and smartraveller.gov.au for current advisories before booking].
